🔗 Share this article

The last time the Russian President visited the South Asian nation in the previous decade, the international order looked entirely distinct. That short trip, limited by the global health crisis, centered around discussions on strategic and defense cooperation between the two leaders.

Not long after, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine would turn the Russian leader into a figure of international condemnation, greatly limiting his overseas engagements.

Furthermore, that period came before a major change in ties between Washington and Delhi, marked by contentious statements and the introduction of heavy import duties.

"Against this backdrop, the significance of Putin's journey to engage with the Indian PM cannot be overstated, serving as a signal of enduring ties and a defiance of external pressure," analysts note.

A Pivotal Moment for Two Major Powers

The summit occurs at a crucial time. The Kremlin leader comes after rejecting recent diplomatic initiatives for Ukraine, confident due to claimed advances by Russian forces.

"From Moscow's perspective, the key significance of this engagement is its simple happening," commented a senior researcher based in Moscow. "It indicates a return to something resembling normal international relations."

For India, the risks are even higher. The country faces a challenging geopolitical climate, characterized by a less engaged United States, a diminished Russia, and an increasingly powerful China.

This delicate balance was underscored just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats published a joint opinion piece questioning Russia's commitment to peace. This elicited a sharp rebuke from Indian officials, who labeled it an inappropriate diplomatic practice.

'China Remains the Greatest Threat'

The historical partnership originates from the Cold War era and is deeply entrenched, with Moscow long being Delhi's primary defense supplier. This alliance was generally accepted by the West before a recent shift.

For years, Western nations overlooked India's substantial purchases of discounted Russian oil. However, recently stalled diplomacy, accusations mounted, leading to economic penalties and a significant downturn in transatlantic relations with Delhi.

"In response, India has reverted to its default strategy of 'hedging'," noted a strategic analyst. "This demonstrates to the US that it has alternatives and is waiting to see how the global dynamics settle."

Beyond global diplomacy, India's fundamental concern with Russia is its strategic location. "China remains the greatest threat to India, and historically, India has relied on Russia as a counterweight against China," the analyst stated.

The strengthening Moscow-Beijing axis has raised alarms in Delhi, leading to efforts to prevent an excessively close bond between its northern neighbor and its longtime partner.

This concern has also accelerated India's drive to diversify its military imports, decreasing its dependence on Russian equipment from a dominant share to a reduced portion in recent years.

"Delhi will try to strike a balance: buy sufficient Russian arms to maintain the alliance, but not become so dependent that a sudden cutoff would cripple its defenses," the analyst remarked.

Energy and Economic Ties

Enhanced economic cooperation is expected to be a key agenda item. President Putin has publicly stressed plans to take cooperation with India to a "higher plane", defying Western sanctions.

The issue of energy imports is central. Although the Indian government has stated to continue buying Russian oil, recent restrictions have dampened activity from the commercial buyers. At the same time, India has agreed to increase imports of American oil and gas.

A Kremlin spokesperson acknowledged "hurdles" in energy trade but insisted it would continue without major disruption. The official downplayed the effect of sanctions, claiming they would cause only "insignificant" and "brief" drops and that Russia possesses the "technology" to bypass such measures.

Diplomatic Constraints

As talks proceed, the issue of Ukraine is likely to be addressed mainly through India's consistent appeal for dialogue and peace.

"While the Indian leader has access to all parties, the nation lacks the necessary leverage to alter the course of the war," the analyst said. "Beyond encouraging talks, its ability to effect change is constrained."

In the end, notwithstanding the public displays of camaraderie between the two leaders, the relationship is fundamentally one of "pragmatic strategic interest," guided by cold calculation in a rapidly changing world.